A powerful cross-country storm is bringing bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms from Texas across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast this Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, raising a localized flash flood threat even though the region has been in drought. The same rain that is welcome for long‑term drought relief can run off quickly on parched or hard‑baked soils, leading to rapid rises in creeks, urban flooding in poor‑drainage areas, and dangerous conditions on roads.
Where the risk is highest
Forecasters expect widespread totals of about 1–3 inches of rain from Friday through Sunday, with localized amounts up to 2–3 inches from the Southern Plains (Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas) into parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, and the Carolinas. The Weather Prediction Center and other outlets have highlighted a Level 2 of 4 flash‑flood risk in parts of Arkansas on Saturday, with a broader Level 1 risk shifting from Oklahoma and Texas on Friday into the Southeast by Sunday. Heavy downpours in a one‑ to two‑day window could cause travel disruptions, minor urban and poor‑drainage flooding, and rapid ponding on roads in these areas.
Drought and why flooding is still possible
Much of the South, including areas of Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Texas and parts of Florida, has been in abnormally dry to severe or even extreme drought after one of the driest winters on record in many locations. When intense rain falls on very dry, compacted ground, water tends to run off instead of soaking in, which can actually increase short‑term flash flood risk along small streams, low‑lying spots, and urban corridors. Meteorologists describe this event as a “beneficial but risky” rain: it will help chip away at rainfall deficits and reduce wildfire danger, but localized flooding is still a concern during the heaviest bands of showers and storms.
Severe weather component
The overall severe‑storm threat is expected to be low to marginal, but a few storms could produce damaging wind gusts, small hail, and an isolated tornado from eastern Texas into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, southern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula, mainly Saturday into Sunday. Strongest storms are most likely along a developing line near and east of the low‑pressure center, affecting major metro areas such as Dallas, Houston, San Antonio and then parts of the Deep South as the system shifts east.
Timing overview
Rain develops over the Southern Plains Friday and Friday night, moves into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday, and then spreads into the Southeast on Sunday before clearing the East Coast by Monday. For many locations, it will not rain the entire weekend; instead, there will be one or more periods of heavy showers and storms separated by drier intervals.
Basic safety tips
Never drive through a flooded road: even a few inches of fast‑moving water can sweep vehicles off the roadway, and water depth is often hard to judge at night. Stay alert to watches and warnings from the National Weather Service or local officials, especially if you live near small creeks, in low‑lying spots, or in urban areas prone to poor drainage. If you have outdoor Valentine’s or holiday‑weekend plans anywhere from Texas to the Southeast, have an indoor backup and a way to receive weather alerts on your phone.
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